1. Decrease in the weight of Francophones

By 2028, the population of Ontario could grow by two million, to reach somewhere between 15 and 16 million individuals.

The Ontario francophonie would grow steadily to reach between 622,600 and 659,000 people. However, in most of the scenarios, the proportion of francophones would sit at 4.0%.

The unique architecture of Francophone minority communities, where the rate of Francophone immigration and linguistic continuity does not allow for the renewal of the population, explains, for the most part, that decrease. The strong Ontarian immigration scenario more clearly illustrates the impact of immigration on Franco-Ontarians: even though their number would be greater (659,031) in 2028, the demographic weight would be lower (3.9%), since a larger proportion of new immigrants choose English as their official language.

The projected regional distribution of Francophones for 2028 is based on the movement of the Francophone population over the last few years. Considering that the migrations of Franco- Ontarians do not exactly mirror the general trends for Ontario, we notice a decrease in the weight of Francophones in regions that will benefit from a larger migratory flux, the Central and Eastern regions.

In the Northeastern region, the proportion of Francophones will increase slightly, while it will remain the same in the Southwest and Northwest. According to the reference scenario, the number of Francophones will increase in all of the regions.