Appendix 1

Five projection scenarios were developed. The three principal scenarios (reference, low immigration, high immigration) were built based on the growth rates established by Statistics Canada for the Francophone immigration population of Ontario.

• Reference scenario (1): This scenario combines “medium” projections for all of the characteristics that affect the population demographic dynamic.
• Low (2) and high (3) immigration scenarios: Aware that international immigration is the principal engine for growth of the Canadian population,¹⁵⁶ these two scenarios largely take into consideration the repercussions of recent immigration trends in Ontario on the population characteristics as a whole.¹⁵⁷
• Low (4) and high (5) Francophone immigration scenarios: These scenarios were developed based on the reference scenario. They aim to assess the impact of a change in the rate of Francophone immigrants received annually in Ontario. According to Statistics Canada’s assumptions, the reference scenario assumes an annual Francophone immigrant rate of 3.9%. As the 2016 Census states that Francophone immigrants make up 2.4% of the entire immigrant population of Ontario, a first scenario uses this rate for an annual projection (low Francophone immigration). A second scenario uses a Francophone immigration rate that is the same as Ontario’s target rate of 5% per year¹⁵⁸ (high Francophone immigration).

A few methodological clarifications

The growth rates for Ontario’s Francophone population are those presented in the Statistics Canada report prepared by Houle and Corbeil.¹⁵⁹ That report contains specific linguistic projections for Francophone minority communities in Canada, including Ontario.¹⁶⁰ Since those communities evolve differently from total populations, the projection assumptions and the growth rates used in that report better represent the evolution of these populations.

The total population growth rates for Ontario are those calculated by the Ministry of Finance of Ontario. Though largely based on Statistics Canada’s data, the Ministry’s data present more granular projections for the Ontarian context.

With the exception of the immigration data, all projections have 2016 Census data as their starting point. That starting point is different from the one used by Statistics Canada and the Ministry of Finance of Ontario, which is based on the 2011 National Household Survey. As a result, the population projections for 2028 presented in this document are different.

The calculations and data for immigrant populations use projections by the Ministry of Finance of Ontario for 2028. Although those data have a different starting point (2011 National Household Survey), since they are associated with distinct assumptions and distinct growth rates, it was legitimate to keep the data unchanged.